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E S P T E S T
┌───────┐ ┌───────┐
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│ ├───┤ │ ├─────┐
│ │ │ │ │ │
│ │ │ │ │ │
│ │ │ │ │ │
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└─────┬─┘ │ └─┬───┬─┘ │
│ └─┬─────┘ │ │
└───────┘ └───────┘
(C) 1991 by Phil Mosier
ESPTEST is copyright (C) 1991 Phil Mosier
2728 Bridgeford Drive
Sacramento, CA 95833
ESPTEST is Shareware. Users are granted a
limited license to copy ESPTEST only for the trial use
of others; subject to the following terms. Non-
registered users are granted a limited license to use
ESPTEST on a trial basis. They are encouraged to
determine whether ESPTEST is suitable for their needs.
Use of ESPTEST except for this limited purpose requires
registration. Use of non-registered copies of ESPTEST
by any person, business, corporation, governmental
agency or other entity is strictly forbidden. No user
may modify ESPTEST in any way.
ESPTEST must be copied in unmodified form,
complete with the file containing this license
information. The full ESPTEST documentation must be
included with the copy. No fee, charge or other
compensation may be accepted or requested by any
licensee. ESPTEST may not be distributed in conjunction
with any other product.
Operators of electronic bulletin board systems
(Sysops) may post ESPTEST for down loading by their
users. Distributors of public domain or user supported
software may distribute copies of ESPTEST after
obtaining written permission. Such permission is
usually granted.
Those who continue to use ESPTEST must register.
Registered users will receive the latest version, a
bound manual and annual newsletter. See last page for
order form.
For support call (916) 927-2602 Most evenings and
weekends.
-----------------┌─────────┐---------------------------
┌──────┴──┐ │
│ │ O │ Association of
│ ┌────┴─╨──┐ │
│ │ ├─┘ Shareware
└────┤ O │
│ ║ │ Professionals
---------------└────╨────┘-----------------------------
This program is produced by a member of the
Association of Shareware Professionals (ASP). ASP wants
to make sure that the shareware principle works for you.
If you are unable to resolve a shareware-related problem
with an ASP member by contacting the member directly,
ASP may be able to help. The ASP Ombudsman can help you
resolve a dispute or problem with an ASP member, but
does not provide technical support for members'
products. Please write to the ASP Ombudsman at P.O. Box
5786, Bellevue, WA 98006 or send Compuserve message via
asyplex to ASP Ombudsman 70007,3536
TABLE OF CONTENTS
**************************************************
**************************************************
Introduction . . . 4
Getting Started . . . 7
Required Files
Main Menu
Tutorial: Moving through the program . 11
Changing Defaults . . . 12
Color
Sound
Type of test
File of scores
Taking the test . . . 18
Analysis . . . . 21
Appendix 1: Math notes . . 30
Glossary . . . . 39
Order Form . . . . 41
Introduction
**************************************************
**************************************************
ESPTEST is a serious parapsychological tool that
is designed to be easy to use, for those who are new to
personal computers. It can be used by the student of
parapsychology, or by anyone who wants to go on a
journey of self discovery.
You can gather a body of data that can be analyzed
for research into correlation studies. The questions
that you may attempt to answer are many. Does ESP come
with certain personalities? Are there environmental
influences on results? How do reinforcements effect the
learning of Extrasensory Perception? As a
parapsychologist you can use this classic method just
as Dr. and Mrs. J. B. Rhine did to study Extrasensory
Perception in the 1930's. ESPTEST provides a solution
for one of the major problems for those who wanted to
use this traditional method of testing ESP. The
computing of probability could be time consuming. With
ESPTEST you simply select the Analysis Screen and
display the Probability of the current record file's
results.
For the person who wants to know when the "Power"
is with them ESPTEST easily leads you on a self test of
those psychic abilities that the computer can measure.
It is made to be easy for the beginning user of the
computer. ESPTEST shuffles "cards" that will be the
targets, and the guess identifiers, for each call at the
bottom of the screen. ESPTEST emulates an "endless deck
of cards" and records your answers in great detail.
When you are curious about your success you
select ANALYSIS and the program reads back the file and
displays the results. The ANALYSIS SCREEN will answer
your question "What is the probably of my current
results?" and "How much significance in there to this
probability?"
ESPTEST does require an IBM computer or compatible.
It must have a CGA graphics card (or, of course, you
could run a utility like SIMCGA and against a Hercules
Graphics card to simulate an IBM CGA environment). If
you have a color monitor, the colors can be changed when
4
you like. On a black and white monitor you will only be
changing the shades of grey.
It offers an attractive display that you can
customize to your preference and mood.
You can design your own test environment: Do you
want the target card to be selected before or after you
make your choice, select CLAIRVOYANT or PRECOGNITION
type test?
If you also have a color monitor, you can select
what color you want the screen to be RED, BLUE, or
BLACK.
It has also been helpful for people to know right
away if they are hitting, if they are getting that
certain something that is ESP. This requires two
things; 1) a bottomless deck of cards to prevent anyone
from counting cards, and; 2) quick reinforcement of a
hit. This program provides both.
What kind of sound reinforcement do you want? 1)
ALL trials; 2) only those trials that are right, HIT; 3)
only those trials that are wrong, MISS; or 4) no sound
reinforcement NONE?
What kind of screen image reinforcement do you
want? 1) ALL trials; 2) only those trials that are
right, HIT; 3) only those trials that are wrong, MISS;
4) no visual reinforcement, NONE?
You name the file that saves your score. The name
you give this file will be helpful in sorting records
for elaborate tests because this name becomes a part
each record. This eight letter name could be used to
record: the type of test it contains; RED for attempts
using a red screen color, or HIT_SD for "Hits Reinforced
with Sound" ; or you may just want initials and numbers
-- PLM00010. The three letter extension .ESP is always
provided by the program.
This manual is designed for the beginning users of
a computer. You will be walked through the steps one by
one. If you do not understand any terms, there is a
GLOSSARY in the back. The simple menu driven program is
described in this documentation in great detail.
ESPTEST is designed for the person who may want to
Test/Train their ESP but who may know very little about
computers.
This program not only saves the score and analyzes
the results, but also saves a complete set of data about
each call. This provides the subject with a full record
5
of their Psychic experiences. The serious
parapsychologist is given a set of data that could be
used to answer a wide variety of questions about ESP:
Do some people score better with a test that show's a
Blue screen or Red? Does sound reinforcement of a hit
train people to do better at psychic sensing? Do some
people do better if they take longer to make the call or
would it be better to grab the first impression? Does
it make any difference what day of the month when a test
was done?
The record of each trial is saved. It can be
easily read into many other programs --DBASE III, or
LOTUS 123 to name two.
Try testing your ESP or that of your friends with
this program and feel free to pass in on to other
seekers.
6
Getting Started
**************************************************
**************************************************
In order to use this program there are some
system requirements. This program runs on an IBM
Personal Computer or compatible. It requires a CGA
graphics card. You must have all the required files on
the current drive and directory.
The first step is always to make a backup copy of
the disk for protection from all those unspeakable
things that threaten computer data on floppies. Put
your original in drive A: and a blank formatted floppy
in drive B:
COPY A:\*.* B:\*.*
Then put your original in a safe place (I like to
put a write protect tap on my originals) and begin to
use the copy.
You can use this program by running it from a
floppy drive or from a hard drive if you have one. Now
put the work copy in drive A:. If you are going to run
it from drive A:, you can now go ahead.
If you have a hard drive copy these files to any
sub-directory on that drive.
For hard drive users, first change drives:
C:
Then make a sub-directory, perhaps named ESPTEST:
MD ESPTEST
Then copy the files to that sub-directory, in this
case ESPTEST:
COPY A:*.* C:\ESPTEST\*.*
Then change directories:
7
CD ESPTEST
In either case you should find all these files
when you do a directory inquiry command:
DIR
*********************
Required files
*********************
ESPTEST.EXE -- Is the executable program that allows
you to test the ESP of yourself an others in a variety
of modes.
ESPPARAM.DAT -- This file remembers the values of the
various display settings you chose the last time you
used ESPTEST.
QUIT.ONE -- Can be substituted in the first run of the
program for ESPPARAM.DAT if you do not want the program
to play the introductory theme.
ESPTEST.DOC -- This file contains the documentation.
You are now reading ESPTEST.DOC. You can print this
file.
*********************
Pascal Source Code
*********************
These files are not required but they are
additional documentation for the program.
ESPTEST.PAS -- This is the Pascal source code for the
program. Any serious researcher would want to study the
program for accuracy. You can verify that nothing other
than chance is involved in the generation of the
targets or the scoring of the guesses.
ESPDRIVR.TPU -- this Turbo Pascal Unit allows the
compiled version to include the CGA driver.
ESPFONT.TPU -- this Turbo Pascal Unit allows the
compiled version to include the needed fonts.
ESPIMAGE.TPU -- this Turbo Pascal Unit holds the images
8
that are displayed on the screen, the image of the MENU
screen, and the song.
ESPSCORE.TPU -- this Turbo Pascal Unit holds the
procedure that writes the records, the procedure that
gets the score and the procedure that computes the hits
by target, place, and time.
ESPPROB.TPU -- this Turbo Pascal Unit holds the
procedure that computes Binomial probabilities and Chi-
square significance.
ESPTEST.MAK -- holds the parameters used to make the
compiled program in .EXE format using the utility MAKE.
NEW.BAT -- is the .BAT file to make running MAKE
easier.
**************************
Starting up
**************************
The first time you run ESPTEST the sound will be
set on, by the existing parameter file, ESPPARAM.DAT.
So a theme song will play. If you are in a place where
this will disturb others you may want to make sure you
start with the sound off. There is a special silent
parameter file included QUITE.ONE. For silent running
the first time off, you could copy that file to your
ESPPARAM.DAT (parameter) file:
DEL ESPPARAM.DAT
COPY QUIET.ONE ESPPARAM.DAT
Now when you start ESPTEST it will look at this
new ESPPARAM.DAT for default values and the sound will
not be on.
To run the program type:
ESPTEST
and enter. When you type and enter this, the program
title will appear on the screen. If you have set any
kind of sound reinforcement (HIT, MISS, ALL) the last
time you ran the program, the theme song will start to
play.
When this is done, you press any key.
9
******************
Main Menu
******************
Then a menu appears.
┌───────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │
│ │
│ I Information │
│ │
│ C Change defaults │
│ │
│ T Test │
│ │
│ A Analysis │
│ │
│ Q Quit │
│ │
└───────────────────────────────────────────┘
This is the MAIN MENU.
10
Tutorial: moving through the program
*********************************************
*********************************************
At the top of the MENU SCREEN is a selection
called Program Information, it is here you can select
the PROGRAM INFORMATION SCREEN. You may as well start
at the top.
***************************
Program Information
***************************
Like most activity in ESPTEST this also runs in
what is called "HOT KEY" mode. That is, you only need to
touch the key to make your selection. You do not need
to hit the <enter> key:
P
Now you should have a screen that tells you some
basic information about the program. You return to the
MAIN MENU by pressing any key.
The other screens will allow you to exit by
pressing:
Q
for QUIT. Selecting "Q" from the main menu will exit
the program.
11
Changing Defaults
**************************************************
**************************************************
ESPTEST offers a variety of methods and manners of
self testing and a simple method of choosing between
them. The next area you will want to use is that marked
"Change Defaults" in the MAIN MENU. In order to bring
up the CHANGE DEFAULTS SCREEN press:
C
This menu will then appear in the upper part of
the screen:
┌───────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │
│ C Color is BLUE │
│ │
│ S Sound Reinforcing HIT │
│ │
│ V Visual Reinforcing ALL │
│ │
│ T Type is CLAIRVOYANCE │
│ │
│ F File of scores │
│ CLAIR.ESP │
│ Q Quit │
│ │
└───────────────────────────────────────────┘
You may be happy with this set of current
selections and just leave this menu by selecting "Quit":
Q
As you will find all through this program "Q" will
return you to the previous menu. You will be returned to
the MAIN MENU SCREEN.
12
***********
Color
***********
If you have a color monitor any time you get bored
with the current color of your screen, you can come to
this screen and easily change it:
C
The different color combinations that are available
will be displayed at the bottom of the screen. You must
choose one:
-------------------------
Do you want:
1 RED
2 BLUE
3 BLACK
-------------------------
Once you have made your choice, the bottom will go
blank, and the choice will be seen, this time both in
the new display and the new color. If you have a black
and white screen it will show new shades of grey.
ESPTEST records how this is set as part of each
record on the file that holds your score. This will
show up as a "1", "2", or "3" in position 4 on the
record.
*************
Sound
*************
Even though the introductory title song is pretty
and the sounds that can come from this program can be
helpful in determining your progress you may need to
work in a quiet area:
S
So you can make that change:
13
-------------------------
Do you want the sound:
1 ALL
2 HIT
3 MISS
4 NONE
-------------------------
The sounds of the opening theme, and notices about
hitting or missing the target are turned off and on
here. If you select ALL, you will hear when you have hit
or missed the target. If you select HIT you will only
hear a reward sound when you are right. If you choose
MISS you will hear all the times you were wrong. If you
choose NONE you will get no sound reinforcement. You
can always come back here and turn the sound on again
when you feel it won't disturb anyone.
The system comes with the HIT sound reinforcement
on.
The program records the way this was set as part
of each record on the file that holds your score.
*************
Visual
*************
In this card game you may want to know if your
are right. If the area you must work in requires
silence you can see if you guessed right. So you can
always know your progress even if you must be quiet:
V
So you can make that change:
-------------------------
Do you want to see if you're right?
1 ALL
2 HIT
3 MISS
4 NONE
-------------------------
14
To some it is helpful to know how they are doing,
perhaps others in your experiment should not know as a
control group. Here you can see if knowing makes a
difference to you or others. If you select ALL, you
will see when you have hit or missed the target. If you
select HIT you will only see the card if it is correct.
If you choose MISS you will only see if you are wrong.
Traditional psychological theory would say subjects who
are tested with this option should show a decline in
their initial score. If you choose NONE you will get no
sound reinforcement, these subjects would also decline
in their scores but take longer to do it.
The system comes with the ALL visual reinforcement
on. Different people may respond differently to this.
In combination with the sound reinforcement for HIT's
there could be a learning of ESP taking place.
How this option is set will be recorded on each
record.
*******************
TYPE
*******************
ESPTEST allows you to test either the ability to
know what target has been randomly selected by the
system, or targets that will only be selected after you
make your prediction of the target.
Select :
T
for TYPE. At the bottom of the screen you will see your
choices:
____________________________
What type of test do you want?
1 CLAIRVOYANCE
2 PRECOGNITION
___________________________
In the beginning you may not really know what, if
any, psychic ability you have. You could do some
testing with each of these types. Type will also be
recorded on each record.
15
******************
FILE
******************
ESPTEST offers you the chance to select meaningful
names for the file that will save the scores. But it is
important to remember that this selection does something
much more; because this file name is also saved in a
field on each record in the file. This allows you to
identify not just the file but each record in a way that
will be meaningful.
First name the file/records in a way that will
allow you maximum information:
___________________________
Enter the file name for scores to be saved.
Name could be up to 8 letters long
12345678
___________________________
Perhaps you will name the file JOE or BETTY. Then at
some time in the future you could copy the file into
some larger study group using the DOS command:
COPY JOE.ESP+BETTY.ESP FRIDAY.ESP
If all the records in JOE.ESP were made while JOE
was the name of the file, then the new file FRIDAY.ESP
would still have those individual records with the old
JOE file name in the filename field on the record. This
means that at some time in the future this large
FRIDAY.ESP file could be studied as individual records
again, or read into DBASE or LOTUS and studied as a
special condition.
You could get the same result by 1) naming a file
JOE.ESP and testing Joe. 2) Then you could change the
name of JOE.ESP to BETTY.ESP and test BETTY. 3) Then
RENAME BETTY.ESP FRIDAY.ESP.
If you want to use ESPTEST to analyze that file
you will have to name it with the .ESP extension and
come to this screen and enter FRIDAY as the current file
name. Finally come back to the main menu and select
ANALYSIS.
ESPTEST will always write out to a file and read a
file named with the extension .ESP.
17
Taking the Test
**************************************************
**************************************************
It is hard to tell you what you will see when you
begin to test your ESP, because in a real sense you have
designed the test to suit you.
┌───────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │
│ ┌──────┐ │
│ │ │ │
│ │ │ │
│ │ │ │
│ │ │ │
│ └──────┘ │
│ │
│ ┌─────┬────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┐ │
│ │ 1 │2 │ 3 │ 4 │ 5 │ Q │ │
│ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │
│ │ () │ () │ () │ () │ () │ QUIT│ │
│ └─────┴────┴─────┴─────┴─────┴─────┘ │
└───────────────────────────────────────────┘
You BEGIN TEST by typing:
T
After that you may be looking at the blank screen
if you choose Precognition, to symbolize that the card
has not yet been dealt, or you may see the card face
down, this shows you have chosen Clairvoyance. The
screen could be any of three colors, if you have a color
monitor.
The TEST SCREEN will be displayed with one of 120
possible arrangements of the 5 symbols at the bottom. If
you chose Clairvoyance a card will be displayed face
down. Because of ANSII limitations the symbols are
replaced here with (). The targets at the bottom of the
screen will appear in a different order each time you
make a choice. You will either choose the number of the
correct answer 1 to 5 or Q for QUIT.
18
┌───────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │
│ │
│ │
│ │
│ │
│ │
│ │
│ │
│ ┌─────┬────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┐ │
│ │ 1 │2 │ 3 │ 4 │ 5 │ Q │ │
│ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │
│ │ () │ () │ () │ () │ () │ QUIT│ │
│ └─────┴────┴─────┴─────┴─────┴─────┘ │
└───────────────────────────────────────────┘
This is an example of being given a Precognitive
test.
Suppose you select the symbol that you think the
computer has picked (or will pick). You have many
possible things that could happen at this time:
ALL -- If you have selected sound ALL reinforcement,
and you are correct you will hear the sound reward. If
you are wrong you will also hear a different reward.
HIT -- If you have selected sound HIT reinforcement,
and you are correct you will hear the sound reward. If
you are wrong you will not hear anything.
MISS -- If you have selected sound MISS reinforcement,
and you are correct you will not hear anything. If you
are wrong you will hear the wrong sound reward.
NONE -- If you have selected sound NONE reinforcement,
and you are correct you will not hear anything. If you
are wrong you will also not hear anything.
You may also hit a key on the keyboard that is not
valid. In that case a message will come up on the
screen. If you have not selected NONE a warning will
sound.
If you have selected sound NONE, no sounds will be
made by the system during the running of this program --
nor the next runs -- until you set it ON again; only the
error screens and what visual rewards you selected will
be seen.
Many of the same can be said about he visual
reinforcements:
19
ALL -- If you have selected visual ALL reinforcement,
and you are correct you will see the right and wrong
cards.
HIT -- If you have selected visual HIT reinforcement,
and you are correct you will see the right card. If you
are wrong you will not see the wrong card.
MISS -- If you have selected visual MISS reinforcement,
and you are correct you will not see the card. If you
are wrong you will see the wrong card.
NONE -- If you have selected visual NONE reinforcement,
and you are correct you will not see the card. If you
are wrong you will also not see the card.
You can end the experiment either by finishing the set
of 25 or QUIT at any time:
Q
May the force be with you!
20
Analysis
***************************************************
***************************************************
On this screen we are looking at the results that
come from a rather elaborate mathematical evaluation of
your test. If you want a serious look at the math
involved see the MATH NOTES APPENDIX. Or you can look
at the PASCAL source code if you want to make a more
thorough determination of the method this program uses.
Let me suggest first that here we are trying to
find out if your score can only be explained by some
activity beyond chance. If only chance were at work
your ratio of hits to trials would cluster around 0.2.
If you could use ESP to either raise or lower this it
would show up in a significant variation from chance.
This chapter is for those who only want to know
the way they should look at their own test results. As
a parapsychology researcher you may want to provide this
part of the documentation to your subjects.
First let us look at the screen display and what
it means in general, then you can look at what
individual combinations mean. The screen shows your
ratio of success hits/trials and it uses this to
determine whether to display "ESP" or "Psi-missing."
Then there is a number that represents the probability,
and one that gives the significance of the result.
If only chance were at work you would be expected
to hit 1 in five trials. The chance results would be a
1/5 or 0.2 ratio. So about half the time you get 1/5 or
more of the trials right and half the time you would get
1/5 or less of the trials right. Something other than
chance would be involved if your ratio of success moved
toward 0.1 or 0.3. In either case your results would be
moving away from what chance would expect. Since it is
of interest if your score moves above or below chance we
use what is called a two tailed computing of
probability. So the range of Probabilities is from a
little over 0.5 down to .001 or less. As your score
accumulates you may see a greater and greater indication
that you have ESP. In this case the probability of your
guesses will be closer and closer to .01 and your ratio
21
of success will be over 0.2. Some people use ESP to
avoid the answer, these demonstrations are called
examples of Psi-missing. A convincing demonstration of
Psi-missing would also reach the probability of .01 but
the ratio of success would be less than 0.2 on this
scale. No ESP is indicated by a Probability of around
0.50.
The messages that are displayed on the screen and
whether we are talking about ESP or Psi-missing is
triggered by the system looking at your ratio of
success. If it is greater than 0.2 we are talking about
ESP and "ESP" will be displayed. If it is 0.2 or less
than 0.2 we have a case of Psi-missing and "Psi-missing"
will be in large type on the screen.
Finally we have what Statisticians call the test
of Chi-square significance. Here we want to show some
non-chance activity so we compare the proportions of
your test to chance and see if there is any significant
difference here.
Expected Probable Hits Hits on this test
Expected Probable Misses Misses on this test
Significance will range from 0.0 (when we can not
see any ESP or Psi-missing -- only chance results) to
1.00 when we are virtually certain that the results are
not at all what we expect of chance guessing. With the
chi-square test for significance a ratio of 0.2 will
result in a significance of 0. Used in this way Chi-
square test of significance is an additional, very
conservative, method of verifying that results are
really meaningful.
Some learned journals will publish test results
that are significant at the Probability less than or
equal to 0.1 level. Others require more unlikely
results perhaps Probability less than or equal to
0.025. Journals of parapsychology have always requested
test results of the highest significance (greater than
0.99) and a probability of less than 0.01. Only if the
results were "Probability equal to or less than 0.01"
would your paper be considered for publishing. The
scientific approach requires that you decide the level
of Significance and Probability you are going to accept
as meaningful before you start the test. For the
discussion below I am assuming that you could begin to
be optimistic about a proof once your test goes below
the 0.100 level of probability and above the 0.900
level of significance. The final goal to pursue in
parapsychology is .990 or greater level of significance
and .010 or less probability.
22
As you may get different combinations of these
three various conditions here is a discussion of the
possibilities.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Probability is greater than .10
ESP is showing
Significance less than .90
There maybe some ESP here. Your probability is
between .10 and .60, you have low significance. Low
significance usually means you have not done enough
testing. Keep on trying.
If you have done over 1000 trials and your
probability is close to .50 and the significance level
is less than .50 you are not showing any psychic ability
that this test can find. Continued effort is not likely
to show you have ESP but you may be successful after
changing to a different type. If you are trying
Clairvoyance you could try Precognition. If you are
attempting Precognition try Clairvoyance.
If you have done over a thousand trials and your
score is less than .40 probability and the significance
is greater than .50 this means you have just not yet
reached a significant level. Keep on trying. Anything
could still happen.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Probability is greater than .10
Psi-missing is showing
Significance is less than .90
There may be some Psi-missing here. Your
probability is between .10 and .60, you have low
significance. Low significance usually means you have
not done enough testing. Keep on trying.
If you have done over a thousand trials and your
probability is close to .50 and the significance level
is less than .50 you are not showing any psychic ability
that this test can find. Continued effort is not likely
to show you have ESP but you may be successful after
changing to a different type of test. If you are trying
Clairvoyance change to Precognition, if you are trying
Precognition try Clairvoyance.
If you have done over a thousand trials and your
score has a less than .40 probability and the
significance is greater than .50 this means you have not
yet reached a significant level of Psi-missing. Keep on
trying. You may be in this group.
23
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Probability is less than or equal to .10
ESP is showing
Significance is less than .90
There seems to be some ESP here. Your probability
is less than .10 but you still have low significance.
Low significance usually means you have not done enough
testing. At this point you can begin to be optimistic
about the presence of ESP in your life.
All you need to do is keep this up. Whatever it
is you are doing is good for the current type of ESP.
The Chi-square test will become more significant as the
size of the test file increases.
Some subjects in this group may not know what they
have been doing that worked. Attempts to continue this
level of success may not always be successful. It is
hoped that this program will be a help to such
individuals. They may now become more self aware.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Probability is less than or equal to .10
Psi-missing is showing
Significance is less than .90
There seems to be some Psi-missing demonstrated
here. Your probability is less than .10 but you still
have low significance. Low significance usually means
you have not done enough testing. At this point you
should begin to see that sometimes you use ESP to avoid
the answer.
To prove this all you need to do is keep it up.
Whatever it is you are doing it is unlikely that the
results are caused by chance. The Chi-square test will
become more significant as the size of the test file
increases.
Some subjects in this group (who have found out
early in the test that they have been showing Psi-
missing) have frequently changed their testing pattern
for fear of becoming a proof of what they don't believe
in. They stop using ESP to prove ESP doesn't exist.
24
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Probability is less than or equal to .10
ESP is showing
Significance is greater than .90
The probability of this score being caused by
chance distribution is less than .010 and the hit ratio
is larger than .2 so we are talking about some unlikely
scoring ( ESP is displayed) and the significance is
greater than or equal to .900. Now your significance is
beginning to make this result very meaningful.
This test is beginning to show that you are
demonstrating a rather high degree of ESP.
Parapsychology Journals look for a less than .010
probability and a greater than .990 level of
significance before they will publish the results of a
research project. You should pursue the test to the
level you pre-chose.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Probability is less than or equal to .10
Psi-missing is showing
Significance is greater than .90
Since this is a two-tailed binomial curve we are
computing, here the probability for Psi-missing may
also approach .010. Now that the probability is less
than .100 and the Significance is greater than .900 we
can be somewhat sure you are in that group. You are one
of those people who are using some special ability to
avoid the correct answer here.
Such ability may be very significant and
Parapsychologists need to know about your group also.
Whatever it is you are doing it is very unlikely that
the results are caused by chance.
25
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Significance will not be greater than .90 if
probability is greater than .10.
According to the Guinness Book of World Records a
subject of Prof. Bernard F. Reiss of Hunter College New
York in 1936 established one of the world's best ESP
scores. After 74 runs of 25 guesses each she had an
average of 18.24 score or a 0.73 ratio of hits. If this
subject had used this computer program and stopped after
10 trials, she probably would have 7 hits out of those
10 attempts. If that were analyzed using this program
she would have a probability of 0.001 as a result of
only the first 7 hits out of 10 trials. Even that early
we would have a confidence in her ESP ability of .975.
┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │
│ You have made 10 attempts │
│ You have been successful 7 times; a 0.700 ratio │
│ To have 7 hits or more out of 10 has a │
│ │
│ Probability of 0.001 │
│ │
│ The Chi-Square test shows: │
│ │
│ 2 │
│ X = 5.051 │
│ │
│ You have a 0.975 significance │
│ for this test of your ESP │
│ │
│ Enter Q to QUIT Analysis; enter M for MORE Analysis │
│ │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
You should not expect to reach this world class
level of ESP. Most people who show ESP have to do many
hundred tests to reach these levels of unlikeliness and
that degree of significance. After more than 25 trials
her score would be too far beyond chance to display in
only 3 decimal places. If you or any of your subjects
begin to approach this probability you will need to
analyze the results with a method other than this
program's ANALYSIS SCREEN.
As you begin to ask more sophisticated questions
you will want to read your .ESP file into another
statistical program for evaluation. This means you will
need to know the file layout. Here it is.
26
Num. Name beg end size values description
1 target 1 1 1 1..5 1=cleft,
2=Heart,
3=Yin Yang,
4=four leaf
clover,
5=diamond
2 guess 2 2 1 1..5 place choice
3 hit/miss 3 3 1 H,M H=hit,
M=miss
4 Color 4 4 1 1..3 1=red,
2=blue,
3=black
5 place 5 5 1 1..5 image in 1
6 place 6 6 1 1..5 image in 2
7 place 7 7 1 1..5 image in 3
8 place 8 8 1 1..5 image in 4
9 place 9 9 1 1..5 image in 5
10 sound 10 10 1 1..4 reinforce
1=all,
2=hit,
3=miss,
4=none
11 visual 11 11 1 1..4 reinforce
1=all,
2=hit,
3=miss,
4=none
12 type 12 12 1 C,P C=Clairvoyance
P=Precognition
13 date 13 22 10 YYYY-MM-DD System Time
14 time 23 30 8 HH-MM-SS System time
15 elapsed 31 35 5 elapsed sec. Time between
the second
display and
guess
16 file name 36 43 8 alpha file name
27
This means that you have a chance to use this data
in a variety of ways. You could design any number of
testing factors and then you could:
1. read the file into Lotus 123, or DBASE, or some
other number crunching program.
2. use your own statistical methods from there on.
************************
More Analysis
************************
By pressing:
M
for MORE, we see a screen that demonstrates some
of the many other comparisons. Chi-square compares
ratios and provides the significance of the results.
The purpose is to show that there are many possible uses
of the results you have after some testing with this
program.
This screen tells us if you did significantly
better on some image.
Then we look at the position that the image was in
on the screen and find any significance about your
hitting ratio in various positions.
And finally we study the possibility that you do
better if you quickly select the score, or do you do
better if you take your time.
The important lesson to be learned here is
probably not in any information this screen provides
directly. Rather we see what else is possible to
study.
You could also use this type of statistical
analysis to determine:
If your subjects are doing better on one target vs
all others?
If your subjects are getting better as they take
more tests with hits reinforced?
If your subjects are getting worse as they take
more tests with misses reinforced or no reinforcement?
28
Are they doing better with a blue screen or a
black one?
Are they doing better with cleft signs, or hearts?
Are they doing better with targets that appear in
the 1st position?
This math can be helpful in studying the
significance of other test results or conditions vs ESP
such as:
Positive or negative ESP could be matched to
personality tests for further studies.
ESP could be compared to class scores in various
school subjects.
The ESP scores could be compared before and after
seeing a movie, or other potentially mood altering
events.
The possibilities are nearly endless.
Push the boundaries!
29
Appendix 1: Math Notes
****************************************************
****************************************************
From the MAIN MENU SCREEN you can choose ANALYSIS
and see the computer display the probability of your
current test results.
Binary formula used in the calculations of
binomial probability is written:
x n k n-k
Σ ( ) P q
k=0 k
Sigma stands for the sum of a series. The series
that we are concerned with here is the series of
probabilities for each possible hit in a specific number
of trials. This is best explained with an example.
Probability = 0.2 ; that is 1 in 5; there are five
possible targets and one is correct. What is the
probability of making 2 or fewer hits out of 10 trials?
Let us first construct a table that has the values
for k from 1 to 10. The first equation in that table
will be for the value of 0.
10! 0 10
f(0) = ----------- (.2) (.8) = 0.10737
0!(10 - 0)!
This means that the probability of hitting none
correct in 10 tries is 0.10737. We could say that is
about .11 probability. If you did 100 sets of ten tries
each, you would be expected to hit none correctly in
eleven of these sets.
Now let us continue that series on:
30
10! 0 10
f(0) = ----------- (.2) (.8) = 0.10737
0!(10 - 0)!
10! 1 9
f(1) = ----------- (.2) (.8) = 0.26843
1!(10 - 1)!
10! 2 8
f(2) = --------- (.2) (.8) = 0.30190
2!(10 - 2)!
10! 3 7
f(3) = ---------- (.2) (.8) = 0.20133
3!(10 - 3)!
10! 4 6
f(4) = --------- (.2) (.8) = 0.0881
4!(10 - 4)!
10! 5 5
f(5) = --------- (.2) (.8) = 0.0264
5!(10 - 5)!
10! 6 4
f(6) = ----------- (.2) (.8) = 0.00550
6! (10 - 6)!
10! 7 3
f(7) = ----------- (.2) (.8) = 0.00078
7! (10 - 7)!
10! 8 2
f(8) = --------- (.2) (.8) = 0.00009
8!(10 - 8)!
10! 9 1
f(9) = --------- (.2) (.8) = 0.000004
9!(10 - 9)!
10! 10 0
f(10)= --------- (.2) (.8) = 0.00000001
10!(10 - 10)!
In the study of parapsychology we compare the
results with those that would be expected by chance. In
this test situation, like the classical work done at
Duke University by Dr. J.B. Rhine, the chance of hitting
on any one card is 1 in 5 or .2. Now we can use this
table to find the probability of hitting 2 or less out
of 10 tries:
31
f(k =< 2) = 0.107374 + 0.268435 + 0.301898 = 0.677707
In words then we say that "in almost 68 out of 100
sets of ten, chance would predict you would guess 2 or
less correct."
All of these individual probabilities will add up
to 1.0 (in this case because of rounding errors they
add up to .9999). A graphical way of looking at this is
with the histogram. The area under the bars would also
add up to 1.0.
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
0.35│ │
│ │
0.30│ ┌────┐ │
│ ┌────┤ │ │
0.25│ │ │ │ │
│ │ │ │ │
0.20│ │ │ ├────┐ │
│ │ │ │ │ │
0.15│ │ │ │ │ │
│ │ │ │ │ │
0.10│┌────┤ │ │ │ │
││ │ │ │ ├────┐ │
0.05││ │ │ │ │ ├────┐ │
││ │ │ │ │ │ ├────┐ │
0.00└┴────┴────┴────┴────┴────┴────┴────┴────────────┘
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Histogram of binomial distribution with n = 10 and
p = 0.20
As your number of trials increases the shape of
the histogram will get closer and closer to a curve "the
normal bell probability curve."
As your scores cluster around 0.2 ratio; if you
got about 1 in 5 the probability will be about 0.5. You
have about a 50:50 chance of getting 1 in 5 hits.
Now we must ask two questions; "what are we trying
to prove?" and "How sure are we that we have proven it?"
The first answer will help us answer the next question.
*****************
Chi-square
*****************
The program displays the confidence level computed
32
using the Chi-square method of determining the
significant difference between ratios.
To further demonstrate the many possible ways of
studying the results from a series of tests, ESPTEST
also offers further analysis. The chi-square statistic
for the differences among proportions.
This second screen provides more information about
your psychic ability, but it may literally be "more than
you really want to know." This screen provides a sample
of what parapsychologists call correlation studies --
that is it attempts to answer the question "On what
targets do the subjects score best?" and "Do they do
better when they guess on targets in one position?" and
"Do the high scorers take longer or shorter times to
guess?" These answers can be very interesting to
parapsychologists but most likely they will only
distract the subjects. If you are taking the test
yourself -- and want to score well -- it is recommended
that you don't concern yourself with this deeper
evaluation of your results until you are all done or not
at all.
However to the serious student of parapsychology
results like these are very revealing. They are
concerned with questions like "Why", "Who", and "When."
In an effort to help these research efforts a full
record of each guess was saved on the file. Now with
the help of other statistical tools you can study an
almost limitless array of factors -- combine this test
with a variety of other factors -- music, personality
tests, days of the week, etc.
2
( o - e )
chi-square = Σ _____________
e
The significance was computed this way on the
ANALYSIS SCREEN.
Three possible applications of chi square
evaluations of the significance for differences between
ratios are illustrated by the Second Level Analysis
screen. Here we will look at one set those of boxes,
the top one.
35
Cleft Heart Yang- Clover Crystal
Yang
┌────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐
│ │ │ │ │ │
Hits │ 7 │ 11 │ 15 │ 5 │ 9 │
│ │ │ │ │ │
├────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤
│ │ │ │ │ │
Misses│ 28 │ 26 │ 33 │ 21 │ 36 │
│ │ │ │ │ │
└────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘
This particular study attempts to answer the
question, "Does this subject score better on some images
than on others?" To do this we must first compute the
Chi-square for the five proportions shown of the five
images:
7 : 28 for Cleft
11 : 26 for Heart
15 : 33 for Yang-Yang
5 : 21 for Clover
9 : 36 for Crystal
First we find the total hits = 47; and the total
misses = 144. Next we compute the average over all hit
47/191 = 0.2461. Then the average over all miss 144/191
= 0.7539.
The formula requires a value that represents the
"expected frequencies" so these must be computed for
each image. This assumes that the subject has typically
hit 0.2461 and that this subject guessed "cleft" 35
times we would expect this person to hit cleft attempts
8.6126 times and miss 26.3874 times.
So the formula works like this:
2
( 7 - 8.6126)
_________________ = 0.3019
8.6126
2
( 28 -26.3874)
_________________ = 0.0985
26.3874
2
( 11 - 9.1047)
_________________ = 0.3945
9.1047
36
2
( 26 -27.8953)
_________________ = 0.1288
27.8953
2
( 15- 11.8115)
_________________ = 0.8607
11.8115
2
( 33 -36.1885)
_________________ = 0.2809
36.1885
2
( 5 - 6.3979)
_________________ = 0.3054
6.3979
2
( 21 -19.6021)
_________________ = 0.0997
19.6021
2
( 9 - 11.0733)
_________________ = 0.3882
11.0733
2
( 36 -33.9267)
_________________ = 0.1267
33.9267
=====================
Chi-Square = 2.9854
The significance of a Chi-square value depends on
the number of proportions you are comparing, in this
case 5, and we need to know what is called the degrees
of freedom:
Degrees of freedom = ( n - 1)
We say this example looks at a case with four
degrees of freedom. You could look up this result on a
table. Depending on the level of confidence you want to
establish, you select the value for chi-square from a
table. For these examples we compute the probability
37
given chi-square and the degrees of freedom. Thanks to
the computer and a book of pascal statistical programs
"BIOSTATISTICAL MICROCOMPUTING IN PASCAL" by Jerome H.
Klotz and R. Daniel Meyer, we find this has a
Significance = 0.440, not impressive. Again we are
looking for .99 level.
The full screen looks like this:
┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Clift Heart Ying- Clover 2 │
│ Yang Crystal X = 2.985 │
│ ┌────┬────┬──────┬────┬──────┐ This has a │
│ Hits │ 7 │ 11 │ 15 │ 5 │ 9 │ Significance │
│ ├────┼────┼──────┼────┼──────┤ = 0.440 │
│ │ 28│ 26 │ 33 │ 21│ 36 │ for your │
│ Misses └────┴────┴──────┴────┴──────┤ proportion │
│ Place 1 2 3 4 5 │ by targets. │
│ ┌─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬────┼──────────── │
│ Hits │ 8 │ 6 │ 9 │ 9 │ 15 │ 2 │
│ ├─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┼────┤ X = 2.238 │
│ Misses │ 31 │ 23 │ 25 │ 33 │ 32 │ has a │
│ └─────┴─────┼─────┴─────┴────┤ Significance │
│ Shorter Longer │ 2 │ = 0.308 │
│ Times Times │ X = 0.522 has│ for your │
│ ┌─────┬─────┤ a significance│ proportion │
│ │ 27 │ 20 │ = 0.531 for the│ by their │
│ ├─────┼─────┤ long vs short │ positions. │
│ │ 74 │ 70 │ times you've │ │
│ └─────┴─────┘ taken. │
│ │
│ Enter Q to QUIT and return to MENU │
│ │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
38
Glossary
*******************************************************
*******************************************************
CGA : Color / Graphics Adapter. This is a computer
board that must be installed in your computer before
ESPTEST will run. It could be attached to either a
color or Black/White monitor. Some graphics cards
like Hercules, can be, programmed to emulate an IBM CGA.
COLORS : In this program the choice of colors is one
offered in the CHANGE DEFAULTS menu. If you have a
true CGA and color monitor, the choices listed are the
colors that will be displayed on the screen. With a
black and white monitor you will see different shades of
gray. If your graphics card is not a true CGA, it may
show unpredictable colors.
CLAIRVOYANCE : The power of discerning objects not
present to the senses. Originally used to describe the
clear vision of things beyond sight, but it has come to
describe sensing of those things that now exist; but can
only be known by some ability outside frequently used
senses. It is used here to describe tests that record
hits for the currently selected target, see
precognition.
DEFAULT : The previous or most recent setting made.
Here the default settings are recorded in the file
ESPPARAM.DAT, and the program looks there as part of the
start up routine. So the colors, sound ON/OFF, etc.,
will all be the same as they were the last time you ran
this program.
ESP : Short for Extrasensory Perception. A term,
popularized by J.B.Rhine, that includes clairvoyance,
telepathy and precognition.
39
ESPTEST : this computer program. It records in ASCII
attempts to know selections that are not known by
frequently used senses -- extrasensory. This program
then computes the probability of the scores recorded in
the currently selected file with the extension .ESP.
GRAPHICS CARD : A computer card that can be installed
in your computer. It allows certain types of graphics
modes to be displayed on your screen. Some graphics
cards like Hercules can be reprogrammed to emulate a IBM
CGA (see CGA), (see I.B.M.).
HIT : A successful attempt to guess the target that is
selected. See PRECOGNITION, and CLAIRVOYANCE.
HOT KEY: A mode of response to the key board that
allows some computer programs to use a key that is
pressed immediately without waiting for the transmit
key.
HERCULES: A brand of computer graphics card.
I.B.M.: International Business Machines, Inc.
PRECOGNITION: Supernormal knowledge of coming events.
In this program a successful attempt to guess a target
that was not yet selected at the time the guess was
made. See clairvoyance.
REWARD : In this context it is the sound or visual
message that tells the subject if they have hit the
target.
SHAREWARE : A computer program that is copyrighted; and
all rights are owned by the author, who has chosen to
allow distribution with a few restrictions on an
introductory basis. Users are expected to register, and
in return they get some extra consideration and
materials.
40
Order Form:
The registration of ESPTEST for $35 licenses you
to use the product on a regular basis.
ESPTEST saves the GUESS, and whether it was a HIT
or MISS, but also: if VISUAL or SOUND reinforcement was
on the COLOR of the screen, TARGET ID, and TARGET PLACE,
SYSTEM TIME, the SYSTEM DATE, ELAPSED TIME that the
subject took before responding, FILE NAME. If you want
to keep different subjects straight in a large sample,
the program allows you to save each call in a file that
is meaningful. You can concatenate files together for
statistical studies or study individual subjects.
Member Association of Shareware Professionals, for
support call (916)927-2602 or write:
Phil Mosier
2728 Bridgeford Drive
Sacramento, CA 95833
Please send:
_____ ESPTEST @ $ 35.00 each $_____
(includes manual, annual newsletter,
most current version)
(California residents add 7.25% sales tax) $_____
Postage and handling in United States 4.00
or Postage outside United States 11.00
Total $_____
Send check or money order (no COD please)
Name :_____________________________________
Institution :_____________________________________
Street :_____________________________________
City :_______________________ State : ___
Zip : __________
